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Monday, October 16, 2023

September sees rebound in commercial property activity

The Savills Commercial Development PMI® signalled a robust expansion of total development activity in September, with the rate of growth rising from August's low.

Commercial construction companies indicated a marked expansion of both private and public sector activity. The latest increase in work on public sector projects was the sharpest for six months, but remained down on that recorded for private sector activity.

Higher levels of activity were recorded in all nine areas of commercial development monitored by the survey in September. The strongest upward growth trend was for private sector new build activity, with firms indicating that the rate of expansion was the sharpest for six months.

Commenting on the survey, Mat Oakley, head of Savills' Commercial Research department said: "As expected the general slowdown in the rate of growth in August appears to have been a seasonal blip. With private sector office construction having increased for the thirty-seventh consecutive month, it is no surprise that developers' optimism about the prospects for this sector cooled a little this month."


Key findings for September 2006:


-The Total Commercial Activity Index posted 59.3 in September, up from 56.3 in the previous month, to signal a sharp expansion of commercial development activity. The rate of growth increased from August's low and was above the survey's long-run average, with one-quarter of the survey panel indicating a rise in activity in September.


-Growth of public sector activity was the sharpest for six months in September, with more than three times as many panel members (16%) reporting a rise in public sector development, compared to those that signalled a fall (5%).


-September data indicated that private sector activity increased for a ninth consecutive month. The rate of expansion was above the survey's long-run average and more marked than for public sector development activity.


-Commercial construction growth was broad-based across all nine areas of activity monitored in September. Private sector new build activity was the best-performing category, with the rate of expansion rising to a six-month high.


-Growth of industrial/warehouse activity accelerated in September and was well above August's fourteen-month low. Latest data indicated robust expansions of office fit-out activity and work on private sector office projects. Following a marginal decline in August, panel members indicated a solid rise in public sector retail & leisure activity.


-Regional data indicated that growth of commercial development activity was broad-based across the three geographical areas monitored by the survey. Commercial construction firms signalled that expansion of activity was sharpest in London, with one-in-three panellists reporting higher levels of overall activity in the latest survey period.


-Despite easing since the previous month, expectations of commercial development growth were buoyant across all three areas of activity monitored by the survey in September. The strongest degree of positive sentiment was for retail & leisure activity in three months' time.

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